Ray's forecasts - three years on

In researching a new presentation, I came across an old presentation that I gave to an MRS workshop back in November 2004. In that presentation I made several forecasts of things that would not happen, and provided some tips.

Here are those 2004 thoughts:

Things that won't happen

1. Online qual in the UK (this is still a tiny, tiny part of the business. However, online communities might be a big thing in the near future, and qual is part of their toolkit).
2. TV-based systems (very interesting, very tiny).
3. Idiot-proof survey creation (if anything the move towards flash and animation is making it harder to script good surveys).
4. Online currency and micro-payment (still no movement).
5. Virtual Reality shopping systems (these are great, but the time lags keep them in a niche role).
6. Improvements in the skill base of the market research industry (I have not seen any improvements, although both the MRS and ESOMAR are both targeting Talent as the big theme for the future).
7. Most clients accessing data via interactive systems (small progress, but little adoption).

My 2004 tips for the future

• Learn about Direct Marketing (the coalescence is happening, in particular look at what is happening with things like P&G's Tremor Panels).
• Get used to panels (they are fast becoming the dominant method, in Australia they are already the largest modality).
• Develop some qual skills (Qual continues to grow, it is going to be even bigger).
• Avoid mobile phone systems, TV systems, and VR systems (still true, but at some stage all of these will develop a killer app and be worthwhile, but when?)
• Concentrate on the human/computer interface (Was I wrong? Or, are people heading in the wrong direction? This has not been adopted, but I think it should be.)

William Gibson and futurists.
In the last week, William Gibson, the sci-fi writer who has done most to enrich the language we use about the Net, has attacked futurists, as charlatans who pretend to know the future. I think he is wrong, most futurists are the first to say they can't predict the future. We are the people who are saying the future is stranger than you think, most people assume the future is like the present, or it is some linear extension of the present. Most futurists agree that the future will be with us sooner than you think, that change is non-linear, and that the rate of change is accelerating.

Scenario spinning is not about trying to be occasionally, exactly right, it is about never being completely wrong, and it does that by trying to outline the different directions that things might go in, and to try to spot early indications of which possible future is most likely happen.

Comments

[Jared]

I guess with panels it is not if they will continue to grow but how they will continue to grow is the question.

[Sally]

Have you seen this video "A vision of students today"? (http://www.youtube.com/v/dGCJ46vyR9o&rel=1)It gives an interesting insight into your No 1 "Things that won't happen" - these guys surveyed themselves and the results are very interesting - undergraduate students of today = consumers of the future.