The iPhone will hit the streets in about a day’s time, in parts of the US, if you use AT&T as a carrier. I like to think I watch trends and patterns, so where do I stand on the iPhone?
My gut feel is that it will do better than the Apple Newton, Apple TV, and Apple Lisa, but I suspect less well than the Apple II, the Apple Mac, and the iPod. My feeling is that any multifunction device has to succeed as phone, first and foremost. Initially, the iPhone will be expensive, restricted to the US, and tied to one carrier.
Indeed, I think the jury is still out on the extent to which people are looking for a multifunction device. People generally want their phone and their MP3 player to be small and robust. But, if they want a PDA then tend to want it to be larger, digital cameras still seem to be doing well, despite the improving cameras in phones, and people tend to want to watch movies and streamed TV on larger screens. I doubt we have found the format for a successful format for a multifunction device, and it may be that we don’t really want one.
My prediction? Either a passionate and successful niche (like Blackberry or indeed like the Mac), or a failure.
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