The Future Place Blog

Top 10 Dying (dead) Computer Skills

Computerworld has an interesting article listing 10 skills that are no longer needed, including: Cobol, C, non-relational databases, and PC Network administrators.

As somebody who read a degree in computing science in the 1970s I can sympathise with this article greatly. I could add to the list of dead items Algol, Basic, Fortran, handling paper tape, handling punch cards, most procedural programming (replaced by Object Oriented Programming), and being strong enough to carry old fashioned ‘portables’ or even worse ‘luggables’.

Via Slashdot

Do we need another stats book?

Having just finished doing the final proof reading and edits for my contribution for the upcoming ESOMAR Handbook on Market Reserch (my section is about the impact of technology on market research), my thoughts have returned to an idea I have considered before, writing a book rather than a chapter.

In particular the book I feel 'I have inside me' is a stats book written specifically for market researchers. The book would have two points of focus, firstly covering all the standard statistical topics in MR language and with MR examples (for example how to select a sample size, and how to tell whether one concept is better than another), and secondly creating a book that answers 'how to' questions, rather than concentrating on formulae. For example, how to measure customer satisfaction, how to measure the drivers of satisfaction, how to evaluate prices.

But it could be that there are already enough books out there, or it could be that what we need is a wiki rather than a book - but there is  something wonderfully tangible about a book. Anybody out there got any suggestions? Don't worry, I am not hoping to be able to give up the day job!

Google want to use the electronic wake to control your life

In five years Google would like to have collected enough information about you to be able to answer such questions as “What shall I do tomorrow?” and “What job shall I take?”. At least that is the view of Eric Schmidt, the Chief Executive of Google when asked how Google might look in five years, according to FT.com, via lifehacker.

Google are in a race to collect the most comprehensive database of individual information. As well as storing your searches and general Google usage there are parts of the Google service which are particularly fruitful in terms of generating usable electronic wake. iGoogle allows users to personalise their own Google search, and will generate more information for Google, as will Google's personalised search which was launched two years ago.

A new Google service under development is Google Recommendations, where the search suggests products and services the user may like, based on their existing electronic wake, this too will build up usable, proprietary, electronic wake.

My instinctive response to this sort of news is to shrink back into my 60s hippy, liberal rejection of “The Man”. However, that response could simply show how out of touch I am. If we look at the way people share their information via Social Networks, it may be that the majority will be happy to surrender all this information, if it provides a better level of service.

I am also reminded of the film Minority Report where the system was able to predict crime, and people were arrested for Future Crime. I worry that this sort of electronic wake will be used to arrest people who have never broken the law, but who are considered likely to – and again, the majority may say “so what, sounds good to me”, unless it is them who is wrongfully arrested.

China to become top tourist destination

We are becoming increasingly familiar with the news that China’s economic growth and technological development are pushing it towards the top of the league in terms of GDP, Internet users, PC users, global trade, and consumption of raw materials, but it seems that China is also destined to be the number one tourist destination – something that will be further helped by the upcoming Olympics in Beijing in 2008.

WARC report that China is currently the world’s number four destination, behind France, Spain, and United States. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation, if current trends continue China will replace the US as the number three destination in 2008, and by 2015 will be the top global destination.

Although media references to the growth of China and Asia’s influence are fairly common, as is the growth in books talking about the issue, I do not think that it has really entered the mind set of most people yet. Almost the only people who seem to be actively talking about it are US politicians, some of whom seem to be under the misapprehension that they can stop it, but at least they see the change is happening.

It is clearly good that 100s of millions of people in China will be lifted out of poverty, and it should be good that the cost of production of many products and services bought in the West will fall, but the rise of Asia and China will create massive changes and we should be adapting to them now, not when they have already happened.

For example, I believe that it is possible for companies based in the West to continue to be thought leaders in the area of global Market Research even when the seat of economic power moves from the US and Europe to Asia, and for these companies to generate revenues that reflect value added insight, rather than commodity production. But, to do that we should tackling the issues now, for example seeking to check that whether our standard research tools need modifying in China, and looking towards maintaining our non-Internet fieldwork skills in markets like India and Indonesia.

Jack of all trades, master of none

Seth Godin's blog highlights the excerpt below. One of the key things for anybody is to learn how to prioritise.

Great Monitors, shame about the Gore mess

The picture below from Time caught my eye when I saw it on LifeHacker

As the people at LifeHacker say Al Gore could do with an in-tray (but there might be one under the mess) or a copy of Conquer the Clutter.

TNS’s YouTube Campaign

TNS seem to be adding a growing number of short ads on YouTube, talking about how they provide insight rather than just data.

As a method of playing with the YouTube this seems like a sensible, if a little boring, option. One thing which is a little odd, and not very Web 2.0 is that TNS appear to have requested that their ads can't be embedded, so to see their ads you will need to click on the links below (although I could simply have ripped copies).

Milk

Make-up

TNS also have a more conventional credentials video on YouTube, but it does seem dreadfully dull and long, and at one stage includes the catchy phrase "we're safe, solid and reliable". After about 90 seconds the ad starts to talk about offering more than being safe and reliable - but audiences are not captive, who will get this far through? I watched the last 2 minutes, but the ad still produced nothing different, nothing to suggest the brand is creative or delivers more insight than the rest of the pack. But at least this ad can be embedded!

Intel accused of bad ethics over One Laptop Per Child

The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) is a charitable organisation that aims to produce a cheap, robust laptop that Governments in the developing world can buy for about US$100 to provide computers to children. The idea is allow millions of children to leapfrog into the 21st Century and access more of what the world can offer.

The project is headed by Profession Nicholas Negroponte and is due to start shipping laptops this year. When the idea was first floated at Davos in January 2005 it was widely seen as impossible, and was apparently dismissed by Intel Chairman Craig Barrett. However, as the launch date gets closer, more and more people seem keen to launch commercial versions of the OLPC machine.

Intel have launched a low cost machine called the Classmate and are now being accused of trying to sabotage the OLPC effort. Negroponte claims that Intel have distributed literature to Governments, attacking the OLPC concept and stressing the benefits of the Intel based Classmate. Barrett of Intel defends this approach by saying “That’s the way our business works.”. Negroponte asserts that the real issue is that the OLPC machine uses the AMD chip, and Intel is prepared to sell its machine at a loss in order to damage the One Laptop Per Child machine.

I suspect that unless this is sorted quickly it could rebound badly on Intel. Since Enron there as been a change in the public’s feelings about business ethics. Fighting hard to produce better chips than AMD is still seen as a good thing, but damaging the chances of third world children to gain access to IT as a method of hurting your competitor is likely to play badly.

The BBC has more on this issue here.

Chris Andersons next book, 2008?

Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail, has announced that he has sold the rights to his next book to Hyperion, but it will not be finished until mid-2008, to be published after that.

It looks as though Anderson will be focusing on one aspect of The Long Tail, namely the economics of ‘selling’ things that are Free. The title of the book is scheduled to be “Free”, and subtitles he is currently looking at include “How companies get rich by charging nothing” and “The economics of abundance and the marketplace without money”.

Anderson’s preferred subtitle “The past and future of a radical price” – strikes me as an attempt to be too clever.

The fear of the fear of Inflation

This week’s Economist had an interesting article about UK inflation. Annual inflation had jumped from 2.8% in February, to 3.1% in March, before falling back in April to 2.8%. However, these numbers are the UK Government’s preferred numbers, old fashioned retail inflation dropped from a more worrying 4.8% to a still worrying 4.5%.

In the UK interest rates are controlled by a body called the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), who have a target to keep inflation to a target of 2.0% (using the Government’s softer numbers). Interest rates last summer were 4.5% and by May 10th had reached 5.5%, and the suggestion is that rates will rise further yet.

The MPC’s key concern is that companies will start to assume that they can increase prices, and will therefore be soft on wage increases. The MPC is beginning to worry that people are expecting inflation, and beginning to plan price and wage rises accordingly. Or, to restate the title of this post, the MPC is frightened that people will start to become frightened about the return of inflation and that they will thereby make inflation more likely. Therefore, it is likely that the MPC will behave in an over aggressive way to convince everybody that it would rather slow economic growth by raising rates further, rather then risk inflation.

In research we have been going though a phase where research prices have been relative static or falling, partly as a result of the falling cost of online sample. In meeting with Execs from other companies I hear a number of people talking about price increases, and about how people are spending more and more money attracting key staff. If the Economists analysis is correct, these execs may find themselves heading for stormy weather, with rising costs but only limited scope to increase prices.